Key takeaways:
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XRP establishes support at $2.80, with a potential descending triangle breakout projecting a 23% rally to $3.66.
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US Securities and Exchange Commission approval of spot XRP ETFs could add to the October tailwinds.
XRP (XRP) price rose 5% in the past 24 hours, up 11% from its local low of $2.69 to trade just below $3 on Thursday. This move positioned XRP for further gains in October, backed by several onchain, technical and fundamental factors.
Onchain data supports XRP breakout scenario
XRP’s record quarterly close on Tuesday came as the price pushed above a key support zone between $2.75-$2.80, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView show.
The cost basis distribution heatmap shows significant activity in this area, where nearly 4.3 billion XRP were acquired, underscoring the importance of this level.
Holding above was critical for a sustained recovery toward $3 and beyond.
“$XRP is currently trading within a descending triangle pattern as buyers continue to defend the $2.8 support zone,” said Alpha Crypto Signal analysts, adding:
“This compression is setting up for a decisive move.”
The next significant resistance is expected to be at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, around $3, the triangle’s descending trendline.
A breakout above the descending trendline with substantial volume could trigger a bullish leg for XRP toward $3.40–$3.66.
As Cointelegraph reported, a decisive breakout from a symmetrical triangle could ignite a rally toward $4.20 in October, fueled by whale buying.
SEC’s ETF approval to boost XRP price
October’s ETF spotlight could also add tailwinds to XRP, with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) deadlines looming mid-month.
The agency is expected to decide on six spot XRP ETF applications, including Grayscale’s, with a deadline of Oct. 18. The key deadlines for other applications fall between Oct. 19 and Oct. 25.
⚡️ INSIGHT: SEC deadlines for multiple $XRP ETF applications approaching in October. pic.twitter.com/oMCsGEM5dX
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) September 29, 2025
These rulings follow the SEC’s approval of streamlined listing standards for spot crypto ETFs, signaling a regulatory openness following the resolution of Ripple’s lawsuit.
Related: Why XRP matters: 5 key factors driving its value beyond price
Approvals could unlock billions in institutional capital, as seen with REX/Osprey’s XRPR, which debuted on Sept. 18 with nearly $38 million in first-day volume.
Even partial approvals would boost sentiment, liquidity, and adoption, fostering a self-reinforcing rally in October’s high-stakes window.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
