Key Takeaways
XRP’s RSI was nearing 90, and momentum looks stretched. BTC is coiling just below its ATH, and a breakout could trigger a capital rotation. Is Ripple about to feel the squeeze?
A month ago, Ripple [XRP] traded nearly 40% below its current price, grinding through a multi-month consolidation under $2.50. Fast-forward, and that patience is finally paying off.
But cracking $3 is one thing, and holding above it is another. Over half of the recent 40% move occurred in just the past week, and the RSI was already pushing near 90, at press time, marking a level last seen during the election squeeze.
Back then, XRP overheated and dumped nearly 35% to $1.90 before that zone flipped into solid support, setting the stage for the run to $3.35.
So does that put $3 at risk this time around?
Too fast, too soon?
The XRP/BTC chart is flashing strength again. In under two weeks, the ratio has risen 30%, reclaiming the March breakdown point and surpassing two key resistances on the way up.
Last time we saw this kind of relative outperformance was during the election rally, when Bitcoin [BTC] was stuck range-bound below its then-historic $100k mark.
However, that breakout marked a shift. BTC pushed nearly 10% higher to tag $108,230, while XRP saw a sharp 35% pullback. If the setup plays out the same way, we could be nearing another rotation point back into Bitcoin.
Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
Why? BTC’s once again coiling just below a key breakout level. This time under its new all-time high at $122k, spending a third straight day ranging between $116k and $120k.
At the same time, XRP is pushing into overbought territory, with overheated momentum and RSI pressing extreme levels. So if BTC catches a breakout bid, does XRP get hit with another rotation-led pullback?
XRP faces key test if BTC breaks out
At press time, XRP’s breakout is picking up pace, now approaching the $3.15 supply wall. Meanwhile, realized profits are ramping, with nearly $1.5 billion in gains locked in over the past three days alone.
But price action hasn’t flinched, which speaks to strong bid support underneath. That’s no coincidence. Over the last two weeks, 2.2 billion XRP have flowed into the network’s most dominant holder class.
In fact, their collective stack just topped 10.85 billion XRP, a level not seen since 2023.
Still, the chart shows about 1.15 billion XRP already rotated out, signaling profit-taking.
Source: Santiment
It’s not a confirmed top, but the signals are heating up. Derivatives data shows nearly $4 billion in new positions added this week alone, pushing XRP’s Open Interest (OI) to a record $9.24 billion, as of writing.
If the XRP/BTC playbook repeats, a deleveraging flush could be next. Post-election, BTC’s breakout drained liquidity from XRP, wiping out around $2.5 billion in OI.
That puts the $3 level at risk. It’s holding for now, but a clean reset wouldn’t be surprising before any real shot at reclaiming the ATH.
